French parliamentary elections toss in the middle of the night, beware of landmines buried in the market
Huitong.com June 16th - After Mark Long won the French presidential crown, the market seems to have forgotten France, and the upcoming French parliamentary elections add this uncertainty. Although the polls show that the Republican Kadima Party where Mark Long is located will win the majority of the National Assembly, there are still mines in the parliamentary elections. Beware of Mark Long stepping on it. If this unexpected situation occurs, the market will set off an uproar. 
Live video trailer; Beijing next Monday (June 19) 08: 50-10: 00, and presided over the well-known financial commentator Old White will join two heavyweight guests Li Yong and the Horse, for investors to parse the French parliamentary elections After the market pattern.
★ [ Live address: laobai.fx678.com ]
★Users can click on the link to enter, or they can wait for the live broadcast directly on the page of this article. The program will arrive at the corresponding playback time. (Note: Mobile APP can't watch videos directly, please use the web version to watch)
★★★FIRST: Be the first to understand the French parliamentary elections at three angles
1. Why pay attention to the French parliamentary elections? In the previous French presidential election, Mark Long defeated the far-right candidate Le Pen, but the matter about France did not end.
The Republican Kadima Party where Mark Long is located will win in the National Assembly and become a key event affecting the economic and social reforms in France and the stability of the Eurozone.
2. What is the result of the first round of voting?
The French parliamentary election ended the first round of voting on June 11. According to the results of the vote, the French President Mark Long camp led by 32.6%.
3. Will there be black swan in the market?
The risk of the French parliamentary elections is less than the previous presidential election. From the current polls, the probability of black swan in the market is small, but the impact of parliamentary elections on the market, especially the euro, cannot be underestimated.
★★★SECOND: There are still mines in the parliamentary elections, beware of Mark Long stepping on!
After the results of the first round of parliamentary elections, the market showed more confidence in the fact that Mark Long won the majority of the seats in the parliament, but there were still mines in the parliamentary elections, and investors should be vigilant against unexpected market conditions.
The latest poll is expected in the second round (June 18) parliamentary elections, the Republican Kadima party where Mark Long is located can take 415 to 445 National Assembly seats, far exceeding the half threshold of 289 seats. 
However, the number of voters who participated in the vote was less than half of the number of registered voters, which was unprecedented in the post-war history of France. Some of Mark Long’s opponents therefore questioned the voters’ support for him. 
The polling agency believes this is because voters are tired of politicians and no longer have illusions. In the case of a high rate of abandonment, Mark Long is expected to win an overwhelming majority.
The two ministers of Mark Long were smashed by scandals. The market predicts that this may affect the parliamentary elections. At present, the impact is not serious. Earlier, the media disclosed that France’s Minister of Homeland Coordination, Ferrand, had hired his son as an assistant to the parliament, and French Minister of European Affairs Desalne was reported to have misconduct when hiring a European parliamentary assistant.
★★★THIRD: Mark Long's economic and social reform
1. Taxes <br>Corporate tax: Reduce the corporate tax rate in France from 33% to 25%.
Personal income tax: The new wealth tax for the rich will not be used for financial investment, and taxpayers who jointly report with the husband and wife can choose to report separately or jointly.
Property Tax: Replace the current “Wealth Solidarity Tax†with “real estate wealth taxâ€.
2. Labor market <br> By reforming the unemployment insurance system and strengthening vocational education and continuing education, to achieve the goal of reducing 900,000 unemployed population within five years, the unemployment rate will be reduced to below 7% by 2022. At the same time, the 35-hour work week is maintained, but the company is allowed to negotiate with employees on working hours and wages.
The chart below shows a list of trends in the French unemployment rate over the past two decades: 
The chart below shows a breakdown of the regional distribution of unemployment in France: 
3. Public Expenditure <br>In the next five years, the government will cut 60 billion euros in spending, while investing 50 billion euros in a basket to stimulate the economy.
4. Other aspects <br>Proposed to strengthen EU cooperation and construction; increase defense security, strengthen national defense and counter terrorism.
★★★FOURTH: Ignore the parliamentary elections? Beware of mines buried in the market
After Mark Long won the French presidential crown, the market seems to have forgotten France. Although the risk of the French parliamentary election is less than the previous presidential election, the impact of this incident on the market cannot be underestimated. 
1, foreign exchange <br> French parliamentary elections mainly on the impact on the currency markets, particularly the euro. If the party where Macron is located wins with an overwhelming majority, the short-term will boost the euro, and the euro may be expected to rise above 1.1220 again. If the advantage is small, the euro is not sensitive to this reaction. If the majority is not obtained, the euro will fall by a hundred points, and the lower support will focus on 1.1022 and 1.0950, but the probability of such a scenario is small. 
The euro's volatility will affect the trend of other currency pairs. At present, this spillover effect is not obvious. Unless there is an unexpected situation in the parliamentary election, the key resistance above the pound against the US dollar is at 1.2977, and the important support below is 1.2634.
After the first round of results of the French parliamentary elections, the euro did not react much to this, which indicates that if there is no accident, the euro may not have large fluctuations.
The chart below shows that the euro against the US dollar is currently biased towards bearishness in terms of the overall technical indicators of the hourly chart and the daily chart. The euro is currently hovering at 1.1150 on the first line. On Wednesday (June 14), the Fed’s hawkish resolution in New York boosted the dollar, putting pressure on the euro’s recent trend. From the trend since the beginning of the year, the euro is reversing the bear market in the past few years, and the medium and long-term line may see further growth in the future. 
2. The stock market <br>The reforms advocated by Mark Long are expected to inject new vitality into the French economy. In theory, both the French stock market and the European stock market will benefit.
The advantages of the party where Mark Long is acquired will affect the trend of the stock market. In the short term, this effect may not be obvious. It is worth noting that if the majority of seats are not obtained, the stock market will be under pressure. 
3, commodity <br> spillover effect is not obvious or French parliamentary elections, it also means that the probability of commodities such as gold and crude oil to be affected is not high. However, if there is an unexpected result in the parliamentary elections , such as if the party where Mark Long is not able to obtain a majority of seats, it will boost market risk aversion, investors will buy gold and government bonds, and the resistance above spot gold will focus on $1,280 and $1,288. nearby. If the market risk aversion heats up, oil prices may fall.
★★★FITTH: How does the organization view the French parliamentary elections? 
Standard & Poor's: France's political uncertainty will be eliminated, and its prospects will be raised. Jean-Michel Six, chief analyst for Standard & Poor's Europe, Middle East and Africa, said that this would eliminate the political glory that enveloped France during the election campaign. Certainty. In addition, the German federal election in September seems to have formed a stable government.
The two largest countries in the Eurozone will be strengthened politically and economically in 2017. This is of great significance and we are currently reviewing our expectations. Or will raise the (foreground) expectations for France and the Eurozone.
Bain: If Mark Long can fulfill his promise, France will move towards a virtuous circle <br>Olivier Marchal, CEO of Bain, said that if Mark Long fulfills his promise during the campaign, then the employment rate in France will pick up. The French will also rebuild their confidence and will also have new investments. The French will move from a vicious circle to a virtuous circle. If Macaron finally fails to deliver on its promises, the economic situation will be a major obstacle to their development, both for France and Europe.
Swedish SEB Investment Bank: It is a good time to enter the European stock market <br>Peter Branner, head of global management of Swedish SEB Investment Bank, which oversees $100 billion, said that since Mark Long won the French presidential election, Europe is clearly Becoming the biggest winner; therefore, this provides investors with a clearer "pointing light", which is now a good time to enter the stock market.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Negotiations with trade unions are important <br>Gilles Moec, chief European economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said that whether Mark Long can succeed in politics depends entirely on his ability to negotiate with the union. Agree. This obviously cannot be a one-time thing, and the one that greets him will surely be a long-lasting tug-of-war.
★★★SIXTH: Q&A on French Parliamentary Elections 
1. Introduction to the French Parliament
The French Parliament adopts a bicameral system. In the main functions of the parliament, the lower house, that is, the national assembly has a more dominant and decisive position than the Senate (the upper house), especially the "life and death power" of the legislation, and its decisions often have an important impact on the government's administration.
As for the president, as long as his camp controls the majority of the National Assembly, it basically clears the obstacles on the legislative road of the proposal and will not be constrained by other parties.
2. Two rounds of election system of the French Parliament
The first round: the voting rate is more than 25%. Anyone who gets an absolute majority (50%) can be elected.
The second round: If no one wins in the first round, candidates with a vote rate of more than 12.5% ​​can enter the second round of matchups.
3. Distribution of parliamentary seats in the last election
The French National Assembly has a total of 577 seats. Members are elected for a term of five years and are directly elected by voters. 
[Note: This article is the original article of "Flying Fish" of Huitong.com of Huitong Finance. Please indicate the source, thank you. 】
Mens Duster Coat,Dust Coat,Womens Duster Coat,Grey Duster Coat
SHAOXING YINBO IMP&EXP CO.,LTD , https://www.yinbotex.com