How likely is China's cotton import policy to adjust?
Since China implemented the “cotton target price subsidy†in 2015, the cotton import policy has gradually stabilized. The annual import quota of 19.8 million tons of tariffs has made the cotton import volume in the past three years relatively stable, and the fluctuation range has been narrowed. The strategy of going to the National Reserve and using the national cotton to compete for it is very clear. However, with the three-year reserve cotton sales in 2015-2017, the national reserve cotton stocks fell to normal or even low levels, especially the high-quality, spinnable cotton resources were sold out, and in 2017 and 2018 Under the circumstances that the supply of high-quality new cotton has not changed greatly, is there a possibility that the cotton import policy will be “relaxed until wide-ranging� The author believes that the import policy in 2017 has almost no need for adjustment and space. In 2018, the number of variables is not large. The probability of issuing 84,000 tons of 1% tariff quotas is large, at least not expecting too much. The reasons are summarized as follows:
1. In 2017, not only the area of ​​fine cotton in Xinjiang may increase significantly, but also the cultivation of the two major cotton areas in the Mainland is expected to rebound. According to the survey, since the income of farmers' cotton planting in 2016/17 is obviously better than that of corn, wheat and other food crops, especially the “price comparison†effect of Xinjiang cotton harvesters in northern Xinjiang is fully manifested, plus the planting of cashmere in 2016. The income of cotton is not ideal, and the enthusiasm of cotton farmers to refine fine cotton wool is so high. Therefore, the author estimates that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang will increase by about 10% in 2017. If the climate, temperature and light are strong, the total output will reach 4.5 million tons. In the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin, the cotton planting intentions have rebounded, at least not. The cultivation of some cotton areas in Hebei, Henan, Hubei and other places is expected to increase, and farmers' requirements for cotton varieties are getting higher and higher. "Low quality, high yield. The varieties of "high clothing" were basically abandoned, and "first-class quality, second-class production, medium-cooked varieties" received wide attention; considering the shortage of pick-up workers, the 2016/17 machine mining and hand-seed purchase price difference only 0.30-0.40 yuan / kg, planting cotton planting again into the "fast lane"; 2017/18 new cotton quality, spinnability, consistency will be more "powerful."
Second, the reserve cotton cotton resource grade and spinnability can fully meet the cotton blending needs of most Chinese textile enterprises. According to statistics, in 2016, China's reserve cotton sold a total of more than 2.6 million tons of surplus stock, and the remaining stocks were about 8 million tons (the imported cotton in 2011 and 2012, the national reserve cotton in 2011 has all been rotated), and the reserve cotton in 2012 and 2013. The storage time is a little shorter, and the indicators such as strength and color level are relatively low. Because of the large-scale public inspection and warehousing pressure in 2016, it is not implemented according to the principle of “prioritizing high-quality reserve cotton rotationâ€. Therefore, 2017, In 2018, the proportion of reserve cotton rotation resources that meet the requirements of spinning 40S cotton blending will not be very low; the auction country cotton storage can moderately ease the pressure on the capital flow of textile enterprises and traders, and obtain second and third purchase funds through pledge and other means. , lock the cotton raw materials in advance.
Third, the use of cotton import quotas is more and more efficient, and Chinese companies should not overestimate the demand for high-quality cotton. First, in 2015 and 2016, China's imports were 1,472,700 tons and 894,400 tons, a decrease of 579,300 tons, down 39.3% year-on-year; while Indian cotton imports fell from 424,400 tons to 118,400 tons, down 51.2% year-on-year. In 2016, the top two imports were US cotton and Australian cotton. The key to China's 1% quota for contracted imports is high-quality cotton. The share of Indian cotton in the Chinese market will be Uzbekistan and Brazil. Cotton catches up and surpasses. In 2017-2018, the trend of purchasing only “high-quality, consistent machine-picked cotton†is more obvious, and it plays an important “filling†role for the domestic cotton gap; in addition, with Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh With the gradual expansion of new production capacity, new equipment and new products in countries such as China, the competitiveness of China's JC40S and JC50S yarns and the following products has declined overall. The textile industry has been eliminated and shuffled. How many orders can there be above 50S? The author believes that the production and sales orders for high-yarn yarns, high-density high-density grey fabrics, fabrics and garments in China in the next three years should not be overly optimistic. Chinese enterprises should not overestimate the demand for high-quality cotton.
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