Zhengyan watch: continuous rebound and general growth pattern
Every reporter Zheng Buchun
A-shares rose after the Spring Festival holiday, partly due to the rise in the external market during the holiday period and partly due to the improvement in liquidity. In addition, the pre-holiday market was somewhat overkill, as A shares did not follow much when the external market rose. From the trend of last Thursday and Friday, individual stocks showed a general pattern.
However, I think that the performance of most stocks this year may not be too good, and the general situation is extremely difficult to sustain. The reason why I say this is because I believe that "the main force that funds are not short of money" usually buys heavyweights and big blue chips. In my opinion, at least in the short term, the right to speak of these funds is relatively large. Also, as we all know, the A-shares in the middle of the year will be officially included in the MSCI International Index. At present, heavyweights and big blue chips naturally take advantage of the “time of dayâ€.
In addition, although non-weighted stocks are not a potential capital chain breakage problem such as equity pledge, the proportion is definitely larger than that of heavyweight stocks. Moreover, some small companies are not so transparent, and this factor alone is enough to make part. Investors tend to take some weights and blue chips. Although the weighted stocks are relatively more reassuring, if investors already hold deep non-weighted stocks, I think they should be carefully screened and not thrown away.
Next, we will slowly transition to the intensive period of the annual report. Investors should be more cautious about the varieties with poor performance. For some non-weighted stocks with very low P/E ratio and expected to have some growth this year, they can generally be reported in the same year. Besides, the transfer opportunities for such stocks should be much larger than the weight stocks.
The news of the renewal of the registration system reform mandate should boost the non-weighted stocks, but personally believe that such a boost is difficult to sustain. The performance of A-shares is closely related to liquidity. The factors that can really boost non-weighted stocks in the future can only be the positive aspects of capital. Other factors are difficult to play a decisive role.
Although the external disk may still be adjusted in the future, the probability of excessive deep decline is not large. US President Trump is engaged in infrastructure construction, and this environment is "temporary" beneficial to US stocks. In the next few weeks, it may enter the Fed rate hike mode. During this period, the external disk is usually prone to some fluctuations, but since everyone knows this, even if there is some impact, the fabric will not get out of control.
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